El Niño Alert?

By Graeme Anderson, Climate Specialist, Victorian Department of Primary Industries and Environment. 

Farmers know that Australia is the land of droughts and flooding rains, but did you know that scientists today have a much better understanding of the key drivers behind our wetter years and our drier ones? Basically, the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans are critical suppliers of moist air that feeds into our weather patterns, and these oceans vary from year to year so it's useful to know what they are up to from one season to the next. The southeast Aust drought in spring of 2006 had both oceans feeding less tropical moisture into weather systems influencing Australia, while the spring of 2010 saw both oceans turn the taps on.  
With talk of an El Niño on the horizon for this spring it's a good time to touch base with some of the sites that can help farmers make sense of it all. The BoM have updated their site which provides fortnightly updates - checkout the BoM ENSO Wrap-up updates on El Niño and what the Pacific and Indian Oceans are up to
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Does it matter in your district? To see how have past El Niño or La Niña events affected rainfall across Australia?
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ensorain.comp.shtml

The Indian Ocean Dipole is also a key driver to keep an eye on. Look at how and where it has affected our seasons.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/about_IOD.shtml


For those who enjoy a good cartoon, try the Climatedogs - short animations that bring climate drivers to life. Just like sheepdogs, sometimes they are in better form than at other times!
http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/agriculture-and-food/farm-management/weather-and-climate/understanding-weather-and-climate/the-climatedogs-the-four-drivers-that-influence-victoriaas-climate/enso
http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/agriculture-and-food/farm-management/weather-and-climate/understanding-weather-and-climate/the-climatedogs-the-four-drivers-that-influence-victoriaas-climate/ridgy
http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/agriculture-and-food/farm-management/weather-and-climate/understanding-weather-and-climate/the-climatedogs-the-four-drivers-that-influence-victoriaas-climate/sam


Some useful links worth checking out if you haven't already:
DEPI Victoria's "The Break" e-news is free to subscribe to and producers can get the latest commentary from Dale Grey
http://www.dpi.vic.gov.au/agriculture/about-agriculture/newsletters-and-updates/the-break-newsletters

Where's the rain expected for the next 7 days?
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

The next 7 days (model forecast) - just hit the play button and see what the next week might play out
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

CliMate app - useful tool to look up your local long term rainfall data and then ask questions to see how often we do we good autumn breaks in April
http://www.australianclimate.net.au

Soil moisture - upper and lower soil moisture levels
http://www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/

For further information contact Graeme Anderson on 03 52264821